Mobile social media booming by 2012

I came across an interesting study from Juniper Research about their forecast for mobile social networking. As I've said before, I think this is a huge growth are that is almost entirely untapped.

As phone data network speeds rise and device functionality improves here in the US, the possibilities are almost endless. I know personally, I can operate almost entirely from my phone in a pinch (email, IM, MS Office docs, blog posts, camera shots to Flickr, etc.), but it's getting easier for everybody to jump in.

Here are some key data points from the release that I think you'll find interesting:

• End-user generated revenues will increase from $572m in 2007 to $5.7b in 2012
  
• Social networking will account for 50% of that
  
• Active users of social networking will increase from 14m to 600m in 2012
  
• Downloads from mobile content delivery services will increase from 200m to 9b in 2012
  

The study notes that data fees are really the largest obstacle right now, but I think we're seeing the start of these rates coming down as demand surges and competition heats up. Look for ad-funded models to also gain traction to off-set cost. The model needs, however, to deliver on value to the end user.

Could the next Facebook be mobile-only?

Could the next Facebook be mobile-only? Could you share more with people if your device automatically uploaded everything to this network (imagine that each photo you took was automatically sent to your mobile account)? Your phone's GPS could auto-publish where you are and text/voice/video messaging would all be integrated seamlessly. I think it's a possibility.

What do you think?

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Matt Dickman, mobile, mobile devices, mobile marketing, social marketing, social media, Techno//Marketer, technology

Comments

[Herb]

Matt,

I agree with you...but...

The thing I have with mobile is that I think mobile as we know it is about to go through its own evolution. The iPhone did more than just launch a sweet-slick phone - the iPhone started to really bring mobile computing closer to the reality that most of us would like.

In the next couple of years hopefully we will get blanked high speed wireless (either by new tech, google providing or the FCC release of the new spectrum) and then I think we will be get true mobile computing devices...that can also do voice.

Then mobile interactive is a go and, well, future here we come. Now, how far out, not sure...but that is where I think consumers want to go.

[Ryan Karpeles]

Matt,

I think "going mobile" acts more as a side dish (and perhaps a very large one) to the main course of 'stationary' web. Mobile and non-mobile go hand in hand. You use them at your convenience, and depending on your location, activities, etc.

I might want a mobile-picture-upload when on vacation. But I'd rather browse all my friends' wall postings, pictures, etc. from a larger screen with easier use and functionality.

But yes, I think mobile will become much more integrated as the barriers (price, technology, regulations) continue to come down. Also, the amount of use will depend a lot on personal preference. In essence, the scales will probably shift farther towards mobile, but I don't think it will ever replace (or come close to completely replacing) its original counterpart.

[Tangerine Toad]

@Matt/Ryan: Where do you guys draw the line between "social media" and "emailing a group of people"?

Remember the Toadism "Social Media Is Only Social If You're Alone." Few people outside your peer group are going to want to let 45 people know they've gone rollerblading. Or share a really funny road sign they just happened upon.

But I can easily see a mobile solution that offers an easier way of say emailing groups of people.

For instance, while on vacation I might want to send one or two pics of the kids to the grandparents, aunts and uncles. Which might be easiest via Flicker or similar. Or I might want to remind 5 people I work with that I am not coming back to the office after a meeting.

And of course teens and 20somethings will indeed want to share every details of their lives with 45 of their closest friends. So I don't think it's a question of "if" someone will develop a mobile Facebook type app. It's when.

[Valeria Maltoni]

Well, I cannot speak from direct knowledge, just second hand. My mom in Italy already uses many mobile applications we have not seen here yet... so the networks and flexibility (as well as the opt-in ad-funded use) seem to be there.

In my post on the iPhone and the opportunity that it may bring to break out of stodgy US wireless cos. monopolies I also mentioned a recent European mobile convention where new technologies were presented (source: NYT).

[Matt Dickman]

Herb -- To your points, I agree that mobile will go through a revolution (more like catching up the revolution that the rest of the world is already going through) and the iPhone is one major device which is US-centric right now. The iPhone has triggered copycats to race into designing competing products. That's good for you and I. Fast data is coming, but it's going to be expensive for a while until more competition comes in. Google's recent move to buy part of the new spectrum is evidence of a possible change in that model.

I think we're closer to the goal then we think. The devices are capable of more than we use them for and some of the networks are manageable. Now the task is to build cool shit and add lots of value.

[Matt Dickman]

Ryan -- I am not sure I agree with you there. Right now there is no stationary web, it's all the same. The new technologies like AJAX are making it easier for apps to scale down in bandwidth and physical size. Some limitations (like Flash not being on phones) is a drawback, but I can get 90% of the rest of the content on my phone when I need it. I can blog, take photos, reply to comments, write docs, edit excel sheets and proof concepts without leaving my car.

The other point here is the definition of mobile. Devices are coming out that are bigger than a phone and smaller than a laptop. Phone screens are getting larger and foldable/projection screens are right around the corner.

The mobile version of sites are still clunky and companies obviously don't take a minute to look at what their sites look like. What I'm talking about is a platform that is so comfortable and natural and embedded in mobile that you don't have to work at it. You don't have to struggle. You just create content and it's shared to your friends instantly.

We'll see what comes of this, but the number of mobile phones is screaming past the number of computers and devices are getting better all the time.

[Matt Dickman]

TT -- That's a great question. Social media (to me) is content that is shared in a trusted network. Email is still the backbone of social media and will be for some time. I guess the difference is what happens when you get the email. Do you read it and email it back to the sender or do you log on and engage with the rest of the community?

I think the ideas you're talking about are the next wave as Twitter-esque services evolve to include more data (photos/video/audio), let you separate people into groups and allow for more content per message.

[Matt Dickman]

Valeria -- I think about your examples all of the time Valeria. You commented about your mom before and she comes to mind when I write about things like this and do longer range planning. The iPhone, as you pointed out, is a great driver that could turn this country back on to the right course. Either that or I'm moving to Italy :)

[David Mead]

I personally don't think the mobile web should be seen as a wholly separate entity. That path kind of leads us back to the browser wars and gated portals like Compuserve & AOL of old.

What we need are sites, social or otherwise, to come along that will make use of the tools (CSS, OpenID, SemaCodes) to make it easier to access our content wherever we are and share it with whomever "we" want.

I'm a tad cynical about the iPhone though some of the hacks coming out (video conferencing) are very cool, so I think it is going to be the driver as you stated Matt.

[Ryan Karpeles]

Matt,

My mistake. By "stationary," I wasn't referring to the Web. I was referring to how we use it. The basic idea is that there are lots of people for whom a mobile web is ideal. BUT, there are many of us who honestly don't want to be connected at all times. (I realize that being connected is optional, and simply because you have a fully functional mobile device, it doesn't mean you have to constantly use it. You can pick and choose your spots.)

I think the biggest issue here is that the line is blurring. Mobile and non-mobile no longer fit into separate boxes. Each of their functions and associations are spilling out into a much grayer area. Success will then stem from the ability of companies and brands to harness that murky, gray puddle and turn it something relevant, useful and valuable. Whether you're live-blogging from Disneyland or Twittering from your office.

[Matt Dickman]

David -- I see your point. A separate web is more scalable and can support the caveats that are inherent with mobile architectures. Content will become more sharable and those mobile formats you mention should grow by leaps and bounds.

We'll see on the iPhone. I think it's all in how the competition responds so we can democratize that type of UI and functionality.

[Matt Dickman]

Ryan -- I see what you mean about stationary. There will always be laptops/desktops that people will use. One thing to note is that the web scales up from mobile to desktop well, but scaling down is painful. Creating mobile content could become the default in the future for a one-time publish kind of situation.

The other thing here is the price. If people could access broadband on their phone, surf around, email, IM, etc. why would they have a desktop to do the same thing? I ask this because I see myself going that route. I also know that realistically there are still people on dialup in the US so I'm ahead of the curve here.

It's exciting to watch this unfold. I think we are going to see a major shift in what people think of when you hear 'mobile phone' in the next couple of years. They're really 'mobile computers'.

[Nate Holland]

I'm not really sure if it's a great idea for a social network to be mobile-only. Wouldn't you want to see photos and videos on a larger screen? :) It sure is a possibility though. But come to think of it, if your cellphone has a wifi option, you can easily access your social networks from there as well as upload photos from your phone. Facebook, for example gives us the option to change our status from our phone (which is similar to Twitter). But if you've got that wifi feature, you can very well check your account from the phone (or even a psp:D).